A multi-factor composite index for Bitcoin market regime detection using on-chain, sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators

Cryptocurrency markets are driven by heterogeneous information from blockchain activity, valuation, investor sentiment, news and social media, and macroeconomic conditions. This study presents and evaluates the Fundamental Score (FS) Composite Index, a multi-factor framework that combines Bitcoin Days Destroyed, Network Value to Transactions, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, combined news and Reddit sentiment, and the U.S. Dollar Index. The components are mapped to a common 0–100 scale and aggregated with fixed weights of 0.25, 0.25, 0.20, 0.15, and 0.15, respectively. Weekly distribution statistics are used to characterize changing score regimes. Using the archived BitcoinFreak outputs for 1 August to 26 October 2025, the study reports weekly threshold behavior, directional-label frequencies, and a reconstructed buy-and-hold versus FS strategy comparison. The reconstructed strategy maps Up, Down, and Flat/Neutral labels to long, short, and zero positions and applies each signal only to the next observed Bitcoin return. However, the sample contains only 87 observations and the archived signal sequence is a diagnostic reconstruction. The reported performance is therefore exploratory and should not be interpreted as validated predictive superiority. The paper identifies the reproducibility, leakage, and multi-regime validation requirements for a definitive evaluation.