LAB #2912 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 36.4% (+5.2pp, — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 36.4% (+5.2pp, n=11) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum of 7 confirmations would have filtered out the two rizzy5m XAUUSD shorts (entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) — both closed as LOSSES — and likely the rizzy5m GBPUSD short at 1.34508 (also a LOSS). That removes 3 of the 4 losses in the window, leaving only the USDJPY wkjudas loss. The remaining 7 trades would have produced 6 wins and 1 loss, pushing win rate from ~60% to ~86% on this small sample, with a PnL delta of roughly +2.5R (assuming fixed risk per trade). However, the filter would also have rejected the USDCHF short that is still open — its outcome is unknown, so the true delta could be slightly lower if that trade wins. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a 7-confirmation minimum likely reduces trade frequency by 30–50% (most rizzy signals fire with 4–6 confirmations). The bac Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23052544
- Primary Topic
- Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence
- Type
- preprint