Blue Transformation Pathway for Nigeria and Africa: A Strategic Framework for Transitioning to 90%–95% Aquaculture Dominance by 2050

ABSTRACT The global fisheries sector is undergoing a structural transformation, with aquaculture surpassing capture fisheries in 2022 (51% of global aquatic animal supply) and reaching 53% by 2024, when aquaculture production topped 100 million tonnes for the first time. Despite vast aquatic resources, Africa produces only approximately 1.9% of global aquaculture output and remains dependent on declining capture fisheries. Nigeria exemplifies this imbalance: aquaculture contributes only 26% of domestic fish production, while the country faces an annual supply deficit exceeding 1.7 million metric tonnes and incurs import costs of USD 700 million–1.5 billion. This paper proposes a Blue Transformation Pathway (BTP), a phased strategic framework to transition Nigeria's fisheries sector to 90%–95% aquaculture dominance by 2050. The BTP comprises three phases: stabilization (2025–2030; ~20% aquaculture), expansion (2030–2040; ~42%), and dominance (2040–2050; 90%–95%), reflecting a smoothed 12.9% compound annual growth rate sustained across the full 28‐year horizon. It is supported by seven implementation pillars, feed innovation, energy transition, infrastructure, finance, technology, human capital, and governance reform, plus three value‐added pillars: blue carbon finance, knowledge economy development, and humanitarian aquaculture. Economic projections indicate potential creation of 5.9–12.6 million jobs, reduction of fish imports by up to USD 6.2 billion annually, and a GDP contribution of 5.5%–7.5% by 2050, with additional gains from Sargassum utilization. The study concludes that Nigeria's aquaculture transition is feasible and scalable, offering a replicable model for sustainable fisheries transformation across Africa.