When tourists move next door: Airbnb and rent dynamics in Milan

This paper studies whether the relationship between Airbnb density and long-term rental prices persisted in the post-pandemic urban context. It analyses the case of Milan (Italy), a city characterized by strong economic and tourist attractiveness, rising housing affordability pressures and comparatively weak regulation of short-term rentals. Using geo-referenced data on long-term rental advertisements and Airbnb listings for the period 2019–2023, this study estimates the association between the change in local Airbnb density and monthly asking rents per square metre, controlling for dwelling characteristics, neighbourhood attributes, accessibility and time effects. The results show that, after the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the renewed growth of short-term rentals was significantly associated with higher long-term rents in Milan. These findings suggest that the Airbnb rent-gap mechanism persisted or re-emerged in the post-pandemic period, contributing to housing affordability pressures and raising important questions for urban housing policy and the regulation of platform-mediated accommodation.