LAB #2875 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.8% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.8% (+6.6pp, n=98) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter to the 10 live trades above would have excluded all trades, since the window (2026-07-31 to 2026-08-07) falls entirely within a DISTRIBUTION phase. That means the 6 wins and 4 losses would be removed — a net PnL change of roughly +2R (assuming wins average +1R, losses -1R) but with zero exposure. The apparent +6.6pp win-rate gain is misleading here because the filter would have eliminated the entire sample, not improved its selectivity — so the live effect is a complete shutdown of trading, not a performance boost. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, this filter would likely reduce trade frequency by ~60-70% (since DISTRIBUTION phases are a minority of calendar time), and the win-rate improvement may hold only if the backtest's 98 trades are representati Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com