The Three-Layer Temporal Structure Theory of Disaster Social History: Toward an Integrated Understanding of Social Resilience Through a Historical Approach

Resilience research in disaster studies has advanced rapidly. However, it faces a fundamental methodological problem, that is the absence of historical context. Criteria for assessing resilience “success” vary across periods and regions; however, the risk of anachronism inherent in applying universal resilience models has been consistently overlooked. This study presents the “Three-Layer Temporal Structure Theory of Disaster Social History,” drawing on Fernand Braudel’s tripartite conception of historical time. The framework analyzes disaster phenomena through the mutually interpenetrating dynamics of geographic (millennia), structural (decades to centuries), and event-historical time (days to years), redefining “resilience” not as recovery capacity but as a process of “historical reconstruction” shaped by historical context. Analyzing flood response history from the seventeenth century to the present in the Igu region of Miyagi Prefecture, three theoretical findings were derived. First, transitions in the structural time layer produce “transitional vulnerability,” in which existing resilience forms are dismantled before new ones emerge. Second, interactions among the three layers are bidirectional: events in lower layers can transform upper layers. Third, the recurrent invocation of “beyond all expectation” constitutes critical evidence that normative criteria for “normality” are historically constructed within the structural time layer. The framework provides an interdisciplinary analytical axis bridging the natural sciences and humanities, while offering a critical historical perspective for contemporary disaster risk reduction policy.