Risk and uncertainty in digital preservation: A survey of CoreTrustSeal certified repositories

Digital repositories certified as trustworthy through systems such as CoreTrustSeal (CTS) are expected to demonstrate readiness for the ongoing work of long-term digital preservation. Yet certification processes rest on largely positivistic assumptions about risk: that risks can be identified, classified, and quantified, and that all parties will interpret risk information consistently. This article challenges that assumption by applying a social constructionist lens to examine how staff members from CTS certified repositories understand risk and characterize uncertainty in the context of digital preservation. Drawing on survey data from 88 respondents across the CTS community (a 54% response rate), the study uses qualitative coding to analyze open-ended responses about the most significant risks and uncertainties facing certified repositories. Findings show that respondents understood risk in terms of concrete threats across five categories: finance, legal, organizational infrastructure, repository processes, and technical infrastructure. Financial sustainability, staffing, and technical infrastructure were particularly prominent. Respondents characterized uncertainty in three areas: finance, data and infrastructure, and the Designated Community. Notably, sources of uncertainty were primarily external to the repository, and respondents frequently treated risk and uncertainty as overlapping or interchangeable concepts. These findings reveal that even repositories that have passed an external audit continue to face significant interconnected threats, particularly around the ability to sustain funding, retain expertise, and maintain infrastructure over time. The study contributes to information science scholarship by demonstrating that technical and procedural standards alone cannot address the complex challenges of digital preservation, and that attention to how practitioners construct meaning around risk is essential for improving both certification systems and preservation practice.