Projected climate change could expand the geographical suitability of Acacia dealbata into new temperate areas

Abstract Acacia dealbata (Link) is enlisted as an invasive alien species in several regions where it was introduced. The invasiveness of the species relies on its resilience to disturbances such as bushfires or water depletion, humans favouring their introduction, or their ability for nitrification of soils. Understanding the potential spread of the species and their climatic niche is of great interest given their ease to invade new environments. In this research, we aimed to predict the potential distribution of A. dealbata in Quercus robur L. forests. Maximum entropy models were developed to simulate the past, present, and future climatic niche suitability for A. dealbata and Q. robur . The potential distributions of the species in several periods of study were compared through Schoener’s and Hellinger’s indices, and climatic profiles were developed as result of variable contributions and response curves. The models performed with great accuracy. The variables accounting the most for the distribution of the species were related to temperature. The main hotspot of niche overlap between Q. robur and Acacia dealbata was Europe. Our results showed that even if both species share an important extent of area worldwide, their suitable climatic niches do not completely overlap.