From Risk Assessment to Sustainable Supply-Chain Resilience: Evaluating EU Rare-Earth Policy Outcomes, 2011–2023

Rare-earth elements (REEs) constrain the deployment of wind generation and electric mobility, on which EU climate targets depend. The EU accordingly developed five criticality assessments between 2011 and 2023, led by the European Commission’s DG GROW and supported by JRC methodological work. This article asks whether assessment capacity has been converted into industrial capacity. Combining EU, USGS and IEA indicators with documented capacity evidence, we classify each assessment cycle on two ordinal scales: policy response and structural outcome, interpreted separately. Exposure remained high: China’s share of global REE processing stayed within an 87–95% band, the end-of-life recycling input rate remained below 1%, and EU separation, magnet production and recycling capacity showed no sustained net expansion during the paired period. Between 2011 and 2020, policy responses became more formalised, while an early recycling-capacity gain was reversed, and no sustained structural improvement remained. The 2023 cycle is reported on the response side only, while 2024–2025 developments are treated as a post-period update. Japan, an illustrative contrast, absorbed the same 2010 shock under a different policy configuration. The EU case indicates an implementation constraint rather than a knowledge deficit, bearing directly on the feasibility of EU climate and circular-economy targets.