The impact of hydropower on energy supply security in Türkiye: Evidence from an ARDL analysis

Dependence on fossil fuels poses significant risks to energy security due to factors such as geopolitical tensions, climate change, and supply disruptions. To mitigate these risks, many countries have recognized the potential of renewable energy in enhancing energy security. Türkiye has been proactively pursuing renewable energy development efforts in line with its climate commitments. This study examines the impact of hydropower generation on energy supply security in Türkiye using annual data for the 1990-2023 period obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. In the model, energy imports were specified as the dependent variable, while hydropower generation, energy intensity, and economic growth were included as explanatory variables. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method was applied to examine the short- and long-run relationships among the variables. The findings show that hydropower generation enhances energy supply security in Türkiye by reducing energy imports in the long run. In contrast, economic growth was found to increase energy imports in the short run. The results reveal that hydropower has a strategic role in the sustainability of energy supply security for Türkiye.