Temporal Transitions in Dietary Patterns and Their Associations with Overweight and Obesity Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in Southern China: Evidence from Four Rounds of Nutrition Surveillance, 2002–2022

Background: China has experienced substantial dietary transitions over recent decades, accompanied by increasing burdens of overweight and obesity. However, long-term changes in dietary patterns and their associations with obesity among middle-aged and older adults remain insufficiently characterized. Methods: We analyzed data from 8502 adults aged ≥ 45 years participating in four waves (2002–2022) of the China National Nutrition Surveys in Guangdong Province. Dietary patterns were identified using k-means cluster analysis based on 23 food groups. Temporal changes in dietary pattern distributions were assessed using Rao–Scott adjusted chi-square tests and survey-weighted logistic regression models incorporating linear and quadratic terms for survey year. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine associations between dietary patterns and overweight, obesity, and central obesity. Results: Three dietary patterns were identified: a traditional cereal-based pattern, a transitional mixed pattern, and an animal-rich diverse pattern. The prevalence of the Traditional Cereal-based pattern decreased from 15.8% in 2002 to 0.4% in 2022, whereas the Animal-rich Diverse pattern increased from 19.2% to 47.0%. Trend analyses confirmed significant temporal changes in all dietary patterns after false discovery rate correction. Compared with the Traditional Cereal-based Pattern, the Transitional Mixed Pattern and Animal-rich Diverse Pattern was associated with higher odds of overweight/obesity, with adjusted ORs of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.29–1.90) and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.14–1.77), respectively. Similar associations were observed for central obesity, with corresponding adjusted ORs of 1.54 (95% CI: 1.26–1.89) and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.08–1.71), respectively. Conclusions: Significant dietary transitions occurred among middle-aged and older adults in Guangdong Province from 2002 to 2022. Dietary patterns characterized by higher intakes of animal-source and energy-dense foods were associated with greater odds of overweight/obesity and central obesity. These findings suggest that dietary diversity alone may not necessarily represent a healthier dietary pattern during nutrition transition and highlight the potential importance of considering overall dietary composition and energy balance in obesity prevention strategies.