Community supervision, sexual offending and dynamic risk factors: a review and critique of the existing evidence

Community supervision is one of the most common criminal justice system responses to people who have sexually offended, and dynamic risk assessment is central within supervision practice. In this review, we explore how formal measures of dynamic risk factors can be used to guide community supervision, and we critically evaluate relevant empirical evidence supporting that practice. There are several sexual offending-specific dynamic risk measures available, but surveys indicate their use in practice appears inconsistent. There is emerging evidence that these measures demonstrate dynamic properties, supporting their use in guiding the targets of intervention during supervision. However, there is a lack of research testing the acute properties of risk factors (i.e. association between short-term change and imminent recidivism), and no research testing the impact of supervision actions on predictive properties. Research is needed to address these gaps and provide clearer, evidence-informed guidance to community practitioners managing the risk of sexual violence.PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENT Assessing and intervening with changeable (i.e. dynamic) risk factors for sexual offending, particularly factors that signal an increased imminent risk of sexual offending (i.e. acute risk factors), is an important but challenging part of the role of community supervision officers. This review highlights the structured risk measures that are available for officers to guide their practice and summarises in what ways they are, and are not, currently supported by empirical evidence.