LAB #2862 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.6% (+6.5pp, — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.6% (+6.5pp, n=431) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ≥6 confirmations filter to the 10 live trades above would have rejected the two LOSS trades from rizzy5m (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and GBPUSD SHORT 1.34508) if they had fewer than 6 confirmations at entry — but you have not provided per-trade confirmation counts, so I cannot verify which specific trades would be filtered. If both losses were filtered, win rate in this window jumps from 6/10 (60%) to 6/8 (75%), a +15pp improvement; if only one loss is filtered, it becomes 6/9 (66.7%). The two wins from rizzy7m and wkjudas are unaffected, so the filter's benefit here is entirely dependent on the confirmation counts of the losing rizzy5m entries — without that data, the claimed +6.5pp backtest improvement cannot be confirmed as transferable to this live window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 mont Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-29
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23030953
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint