LAB #2862 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.6% (+6.5pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.6% (+6.5pp, n=431) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ≥6 confirmations filter to the 10 live trades above would have rejected the two LOSS trades from rizzy5m (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and GBPUSD SHORT 1.34508) if they had fewer than 6 confirmations at entry — but you have not provided per-trade confirmation counts, so I cannot verify which specific trades would be filtered. If both losses were filtered, win rate in this window jumps from 6/10 (60%) to 6/8 (75%), a +15pp improvement; if only one loss is filtered, it becomes 6/9 (66.7%). The two wins from rizzy7m and wkjudas are unaffected, so the filter's benefit here is entirely dependent on the confirmation counts of the losing rizzy5m entries — without that data, the claimed +6.5pp backtest improvement cannot be confirmed as transferable to this live window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 mont Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23030953
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2862 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.6% (+6.5pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2862 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.6% (+6.5pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.6% (+6.5pp, n=431) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ≥6 confirmations filter to the 10 live trades above would have rejected the two LOSS trades from rizzy5m (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and GBPUSD SHORT 1.34508) if they had fewer than 6 confirmations at entry — but you have not provided per-trade confirmation counts, so I cannot verify which specific trades would be filtered. If both losses were filtered, win rate in this window jumps from 6/10 (60%) to 6/8 (75%), a +15pp improvement; if only one loss is filtered, it becomes 6/9 (66.7%). The two wins from rizzy7m and wkjudas are unaffected, so the filter's benefit here is entirely dependent on the confirmation counts of the losing rizzy5m entries — without that data, the claimed +6.5pp backtest improvement cannot be confirmed as transferable to this live window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 mont Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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