ESG Rating Divergence and Corporate Maturity Mismatch: Evidence from China

This study examines whether and how ESG rating divergence affects corporate maturity mismatch between investment and financing, using panel data from China’s A-share listed firms over the period 2015–2023. We employ fixed-effects models as the baseline specification and further apply instrumental variable estimation, propensity score matching, and a battery of robustness checks to address endogeneity and robustness concerns. We also introduce media supervision as a moderating variable to examine its governance role. We establish five main findings. First, ESG rating divergence significantly aggravates corporate maturity mismatch. Second, the underlying mechanism operates through tightened financial constraints, deteriorated information transparency, and rigid operating costs, which force firms to expand short-term debt while contracting long-term liabilities. Third, heterogeneity analyses reveal stronger effects for non-state-owned enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises, firms with low total factor productivity, and firms in less competitive industries. Fourth, media supervision, particularly positive media coverage, mitigates the severity of maturity mismatch by counteracting rating inconsistency, whereas negative coverage amplifies it. Fifth, ESG rating divergence reduces corporate investment efficiency, especially by exacerbating underinvestment, and increases expected default frequency and risk-taking propensity. These findings highlight ESG rating fragmentation as a systemic amplifier of financial risk that undermines corporate resilience and impedes progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals, especially SDG 9 and SDG 13. Policy implications include harmonizing ESG rating standards, strengthening media-based external governance, and integrating sustainability information transparency into financial regulation to align corporate financing behavior with long-term sustainable investment.