Unprecedented storm impact in the Mediterranean revealed by models and seismic noise during Cyclone Harry
Abstract Between 19 and 22 January 2026, the extratropical Cyclone Harry generated the highest individual wave height ever recorded in the Mediterranean Sea, causing widespread coastal flooding and erosion across the central basin. Here we combine oceanographic and meteorological observations, high-resolution morphodynamic datasets, hydrodynamic modelling, and regional microseism analysis to show that Harry produced the most severe coastal impacts of any Mediterranean cyclone in recent decades. Process-based XBeach and HEC-RAS simulations across 19 coastal sites in Sardinia, Malta, Sicily, and Calabria reveal unprecedented inundation extents strongly modulated by local geomorphology, with submarine canyons, buried palaeo-channels, and urban infrastructure amplifying wave setup and inland flooding. Concurrently, broadband seismic records from 55 Mediterranean stations show exceptional secondary microseism amplification, with Ionian stations reaching the highest amplitudes since the beginning of seismic recordings in 1990. Harry’s Microseism Reduced Amplitude exceeded previous storms and Mediterranean cyclones by more than fourfold, highlighting escalating coastal risk under climate-driven cyclone intensification.
Authors
- Flavio Cannavò (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7550-8579)
- Giuseppe Ciraolo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6627-0175)
- Tommaso Alberti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6096-0220)
- Daniele Mastrangelo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9438-5439)
- Adam Gauci (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8635-9230)
- Ignazio Fontana (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0527-9827)
- Natalia Zazulie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1113-5635)
- Johannes de Leeuw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3062-9152)
- Carmelo Monaco (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5690-9879)
- Giovanni Scicchitano (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0328-737X)
- Mario Marcello Miglietta (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2898-1595)
- Giovanni Scardino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2316-7888)
- Emanuele Colica (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0007-8612)
- Marco Anzidei (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1935-1049)
- Salvatore Aronica (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3489-1473)
- Carlo Lo Re (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0948-5687)
- Thomas Lecocq (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4988-6477)
- Andrea Cannata (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0028-5822)
- Sebastiano D’Amico (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7429-4767)
- Giorgio Manno (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6329-9770)
- Francesco Panzera (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3062-4044)
- Gabriele Nardone (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2724-4879)
- Federico Siciliano (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1339-6983)
- Fulvio Capodici (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8823-823X)
- R. C. Aster (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0821-4906)
- Alfio Marco Borzì (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7326-2325)
- Raphael S. M. De Plaen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3477-2001)
- Alok Kushabaha (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8248-9214)
- Alfred Micallef (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5890-1794)
- Pietro Scala (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6230-0506)
Institutions
- Universität Innsbruck (AT)
- University of Malta (MT)
- Royal Observatory of Belgium (BE)
- Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia (IT)
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (IT)
- University of Catania (IT)
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (IT)
- Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (IT)
- National Research Council (IT)
- INGV Osservatorio Etneo (IT)
- University of Bari Aldo Moro (IT)
- University of Palermo (IT)
- Colorado State University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2026-10-29
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04187-3
- Primary Topic
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Universita degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro
- Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca
- Interreg