Quantifying just energy transition in the Global South: A composite territorial energy justice index (TEJI) and fiscal-energy synchronisation modelling for six energy mega-projects in Colombia

Justice metrics for energy transitions in the Global South remain conceptually rich but operationally underdeveloped, limiting their use in planning and project benchmarking. This paper develops the Territorial Energy Justice Index (TEJI), a composite indicator integrating eleven sub-indicators across five dimensions—distributive, procedural, recognition, restorative and fiscal-territorial—benchmarked against normative targets. The index is calibrated on six Colombian energy mega-projects spanning wind, solar, green hydrogen, hydropower and gas-fired generation, the latter a fossil-fuel counterfactual rather than a renewable case. Sub-indicators draw on a triangulated dataset combining public planning and regulatory data, a multi-case documentary audit, and a participatory dataset of 259 respondents across ten workshops. The paper also specifies a three-scenario Fiscal-Energy Synchronisation Curve (FESC) quantifying the alignment between hydrocarbon revenue decline and renewable revenue maturation in five hydrocarbon-producing departments. All six TEJI cases were empirically calibrated through independent, mutually blinded co-author scoring, yielding a quadratic-weighted inter-rater kappa of 0.792 across 66 sub-indicator ratings (substantial agreement). Aggregate TEJI scores range from 9.2/100–35.8/100, with restorative justice the weakest dimension on average (14.6/100); a four-dimension variant excluding the FESC-scope-limited fiscal dimension is also reported. The Caribbean wind corridor shows a marked mismatch between potential and access: La Guajira holds an estimated 51–60% of national onshore wind potential yet the lowest electricity coverage among comparably endowed departments (55.7%), a pattern termed the Caribbean paradox. FESC scenarios show that, compounding real 2025 decline rates, departmental oil revenue falls by approximately 32%, coal by 39–51%, and gas by 68–73% over 2026–2035; existing renewable transfer mechanisms cannot offset this, as FNCER plants transfer only 1% of gross sales against 10% for thermal/hydroelectric plants under Colombian law. The TEJI--FESC framework is reproducible and potentially transferable to other hydrocarbon-dependent economies, offering an operational instrument for project licensing and just-transition monitoring.