The effect of trade capacity constraints on disaster impacts: extending the Multi-Regional Impact Assessment (MRIA) model

Disasters often disrupt supply chains, leading to cascading effects across regions. Regions not directly hit by the disaster may attempt to compensate for the lost production, but their ability to do so is constrained by their available production capacity and the logistical constraints between regions. This study introduces a Multi-Regional Impact Assessment (MRIA) model to evaluate the economic impact of disasters, capturing post-disaster trade dynamics and logistical constraints. The model uses EU interregional Supply and Use tables from Eurostat and is implemented for case studies in the Netherlands. Our findings emphasize that enhancing production capacity alone is inadequate; regional trade flexibility must also be improved to mitigate impacts. At the regional level, disaster-affected areas experience severe negative impacts, whereas larger, export-oriented regions benefit from increased production activity. Additionally, we propose a sectoral criticality assessment that effectively identifies sectors with low redundancy while accounting for regional substitution in a post-disaster scenario.