GIS-based multi-hazard susceptibility and nature-based solution suitability analysis for urban climate resilience in Dessie City, Ethiopia

Ethiopian cities are increasingly vulnerable to multi-hazard climate risks, including floods, landslides, and urban heat, which disproportionately affect low-income communities and threaten urban resilience. These risks are exacerbated by rapid urbanization, steep topography, and unplanned settlements, particularly in Dessie City. However, traditional urban planning paradigms in the region typically evaluate environmental hazards in isolation, creating a critical research gap regarding integrated, risk-informed spatial frameworks that jointly assess physical susceptibilities alongside green infrastructure potential and local social dynamics. Consequently, spatially explicit guidance on where to implement Nature-based Solutions (NbS) remains limited. This study addresses this gap by developing an innovative framework that integrates a GIS-based multi-hazard susceptibility assessment, an NbS suitability analysis, and community perceptions to support evidence-based urban planning. Flood, landslide, and urban heat susceptibility indices were derived using a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), incorporating topographic, hydrological, land use/cover, and socio-environmental variables such as population density, vegetation indices, and Land Surface Temperature (LST). In parallel, a socioeconomic survey of 305 households, complemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews, examined community perceptions of the environmental, socioeconomic, and health benefits of NbS, as well as barriers to their implementation. Results indicate that 34.4% of the city is highly susceptible to landslides, while 57.6% is moderately susceptible to flooding. Urban heat exposure is widespread due to extensive built-up surfaces and limited vegetation cover. The NbS suitability analysis shows that 42.4% of the city is highly or very highly suitable for NbS interventions, whereas 24.2% has low suitability due to biophysical constraints or competing land uses. Strategic areas for intervention include upstream and mid-slope zones ideal for riparian buffers, slope stabilization, urban forests, and green corridors. Community responses reveal strong awareness of NbS benefits but highlight key barriers such as limited financial resources, high maintenance costs, weak institutional coordination, and land tenure insecurity. The novelty of this work lies in its unified spatial approach, which bridges the gap between biophysical susceptibility mapping and practical, community-backed planning interventions by transforming empirical hazard layers into actionable urban design guidelines. Overall, integrating hazard susceptibility, NbS suitability mapping, and community perspectives provides a practical framework for prioritizing NbS investments in rapidly urbanizing, data-scarce cities. Practically, these findings enable municipal authorities to legally enforce blue-green zoning along highly susceptible drainage channels, prioritize structural watershed interventions in upstream catchment zones, and target resource allocation to underserved, climate-exposed informal settlements.