Half of US employer businesses projected to use AI for production around March 2029

This paper offers a method of projecting the time when half of US employer businesses will adopt Artificial Intelligence (AI) in producing goods or services, conditional on the continuation of the discussed trend. Under the stated assumptions, inverting pointwise 95% confidence intervals for the mean of adoption rate logarithms produces a nominal model-based interval from November 2028 through August 2029 for the time when the underlying AI adoption trend reaches 50%, with a point estimate of March 2029. Logarithms of adoption rates were used to make the model easier to fit. This estimate relies on extrapolation beyond the observed range. The descriptive fit is notable with a correlation of 0.9609 between time and the logarithm of the adoption rate, but some of the regression conditions are weak. The Census Bureau revised its AI survey question, so its newer information is not directly comparable to the dataset used.