Operational real-time available transfer capability estimation with dynamic line rating using GBM-based wind power forecasting for integrating wind generating resources

Growing variable renewable energy penetration motivates time-resolved transfer capability assessments that reflect both fluctuating injections and weather-dependent thermal limits. However, many available transfer capability (ATC) studies still rely on static line ratings (SLR), which may lead to inaccurate estimates of available transfer margins by failing to capture both the additional thermal headroom available under favorable meteorological conditions and the potential reduction in line capacity under adverse conditions. This study proposes a 15-min ATC assessment framework for wind-integrated operation by coupling short-term wind power forecasting with weather-dependent thermal limits in a power transfer distribution factor (PTDF)-based formulation. A gradient boosting machine generates 15-min wind power forecasts for a 60 MW wind farm on Jeju Island, South Korea, and PTDF sensitivities map the forecasted wind-injection trajectories to incremental flows on a monitored 154 kV export line to compute time-varying, thermally constrained ATC. Thermal ratings are represented as IEEE Std 738-consistent multiplicative scalings of a common SLR: an ambient-adjusted rating (AAR) captures ambient-temperature effects, while a dynamic line rating (DLR) additionally accounts for wind-driven convective cooling. Seasonal analysis for June 2020–February 2021 shows that, relative to SLR, AAR increases mean ATC by 21.8%–48.5% and DLR by 67.3%–232.1% across representative seasonal weeks. The results show that DLR generally provides additional operational headroom under favorable weather conditions while allowing the rating to decrease under insufficient wind-cooling conditions. The framework further derives risk-oriented operational metrics from wind-injection trajectories and thermally constrained ATC, identifying time windows when thermal constraints bind.