Shifting Crop Patterns in Pune District, Maharashtra: A Temporal Analysis of Agricultural Land Use Change (2015–16 to 2024–25)

Abstract Agriculture in Pune district, Maharashtra, has undergone a profound structural transformation over the decade from 2015–16 to 2024–25. Driven by expanding irrigation infrastructure, access to urban markets, and changing price incentives, the district has progressively shifted its cropping pattern away from rainfed food crops, principally bajra and jowar, towards high-value commercial and horticultural crops such as onion, grapes, and vegetables. This paper analyses that transition using secondary data drawn from the Area, Production and Yield (APY) Reports of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India), the Season and Crop Report (Directorate of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra), and the District at a Glance: Pune 2024–25 (Maharashtra Economic and Statistical Department). The study pursues two research objectives: first, to document the temporal change in area, production, and productivity of major food and commercial crops over the ten-year period; and second, to assess whether expansion of net irrigated area has driven crop diversification in the district. Two hypotheses are tested. The first posits a statistically significant shift from food crops to commercial crops between the two five-year sub-periods 2015–16 to 2019–20 and 2020–21 to 2024–25. The second holds that net irrigated area is positively correlated with the Crop Diversification Index (CDI). Analysis of four data-rich tables confirms both hypotheses. The Structural Change Index (SCI) stands at 8.9, indicating substantial compositional realignment of the crop portfolio. The Pearson correlation coefficient between net irrigated area and CDI is r = 0.997 (t = 36.62; p < 0.001), signalling a near-perfect positive association. These findings carry implications for food security, water resource planning, and agrarian policy in one of Maharashtra's most agriculturally significant districts.