Governance, dependency, and performance in nuclear megaprojects: A strategic analysis of the Akkuyu NPP

This study examines the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) as a strategic governance system within Türkiye’s long-term energy transition. While existing research has primarily focused on the technical, environmental, and economic aspects of nuclear energy, limited attention has been given to the governance mechanisms that shape high-risk megaprojects. To address this gap, the study develops an integrated analytical framework combining SWOT and PESTEL approaches to capture multidimensional strategic dynamics.Methodologically, the research employs systematic qualitative content analysis based on more than 100 academic, institutional, and policy documents. The dual-framework coding structure enables the identification of interactions across political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal dimensions.The findings indicate that policy continuity, advanced Generation III+ reactor technologies, and technology transfer function as key enablers of long-term performance. However, significant structural vulnerabilities emerge, including exchange-rate volatility, foreign dependency, and persistent challenges in achieving social acceptance. The Build–Own–Operate (BOO) model has a dual effect: it alleviates financing constraints but increases geopolitical and institutional dependency risks.The qualitative findings suggest a governance–dependency–performance mechanism in which structural dependency may mediate the relationship between governance quality and project outcomes, while social legitimacy may moderate this effect. By moving beyond descriptive strategic analysis, this study provides a mechanism-based explanation of governance-performance linkages in nuclear megaprojects.The study contributes by conceptualizing nuclear megaprojects as governance-intensive systems and by introducing an integrated SWOT–PESTEL framework linking macro-environmental conditions, internal capabilities, and governance mechanisms. The findings offer policy-relevant insights for strengthening regulatory autonomy, stakeholder engagement, and performance-based governance in large-scale energy investments.