Impacts of hazardous pesticide reduction in Europe

Abstract The European Union (EU) has abandoned its proposal to reduce hazardous pesticide use by 50% by 2030 due to opposition from various stakeholders. However, the EU remains committed to reducing pesticide use and balancing food security, economic viability, and environmental sustainability. We assess the impacts of reducing hazardous pesticide use using MAGNET, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built on the Global Trade Analysis Project framework. We evaluate two scenarios: (1) an uncompensated scenario with yield and production losses; (2) a compensated scenario substituting hazardous pesticides with low-risk alternatives using the example of double-stranded RNA technology. The results show that a 50% reduction in hazardous pesticide use would reduce production, consumption, and exports in the EU27 agricultural sector while increasing prices and land demand. However, substituting hazardous pesticides with low-risk alternatives substantially mitigates these negative effects, maintaining economic stability while advancing environmental goals. This is the first study that uses a CGE model to capture the heterogeneous impacts of hazardous pesticide reduction and substitution across EU Member States. We provide insights into policy trade-offs, helping inform EU decision-makers on strategies to reduce hazardous pesticide use while ensuring economic and food system resilience.