Procyclical Fiscal Policy and Asset Market Incompleteness

We develop a model of the joint behavior of optimal tax rates and government spending over the business cycle to explain procyclical fiscal policy in emerging markets. Our setup relies on financial frictions, which have been shown to be critical features of emerging markets, captured by various degrees of asset market incompleteness as well as varying levels of debt-elastic interest rate spreads. We show that incomplete markets can account for procyclical government spending but not necessarily procyclical tax policy. Explaining procyclical tax policy also requires that the ratio of private to public consumption comoves positively with the business cycle. (JEL E12, E21, E31, E32, E43, E62, H50)

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
American Economic Journal Macroeconomics
Published
2026-09-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220304
Primary Topic
Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
article

Procyclical Fiscal Policy and Asset Market Incompleteness

Carlos A. Végh, Ruy Lama, Andrés Fernández, Daniel Guzmán-Girón
American Economic Journal Macroeconomics
Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
article

Procyclical Fiscal Policy and Asset Market Incompleteness

Carlos A. Végh, Ruy Lama, Andrés Fernández, Daniel Guzmán-Girón
article en

Abstract

We develop a model of the joint behavior of optimal tax rates and government spending over the business cycle to explain procyclical fiscal policy in emerging markets. Our setup relies on financial frictions, which have been shown to be critical features of emerging markets, captured by various degrees of asset market incompleteness as well as varying levels of debt-elastic interest rate spreads. We show that incomplete markets can account for procyclical government spending but not necessarily procyclical tax policy. Explaining procyclical tax policy also requires that the ratio of private to public consumption comoves positively with the business cycle. (JEL E12, E21, E31, E32, E43, E62, H50)

American Economic Journal MacroeconomicsVol. 18(4)
International Monetary Fund (US), Johns Hopkins University (US), Johns Hopkins Medicine (US), Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (US)
Partnerships for the goals
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.