Traditional or novel plant-based proteins? Consumer preferences and climate policy simulations in China

Abstract Plant-based proteins can reduce the carbon footprint of diets, but the relative roles of traditional plant proteins and novel plant-based meat (PBM) remain unclear. We conduct a national online discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 2,161 urban Chinese respondents to compare tofu , a traditional plant protein, and modern PBM as potential substitutes for animal proteins. Mixed logit estimates show that, after controlling for a range of attributes including price, carbon footprint, organic status, and production origin, consumers intrinsically prefer animal protein, followed by PBM and tofu . Latent class results identify four consumer segments—meat lovers, vegetarians, PBM adopters, and indifferent consumers—each with distinct preference rankings and socioeconomic characteristics. Monte Carlo policy simulations show that, despite being less intrinsically preferred than PBM, tofu plays a substantial role in increasing the market share of non-animal proteins due to its price advantage. Moreover, carbon labeling generates larger simulated shifts toward non-animal proteins: the market share increases from 8% in the baseline to 19% under a meat tax and 36% under carbon labeling. Our findings highlight the substantial potential of traditional plant proteins in promoting dietary shifts, and support the use of information-based strategies to reduce carbon emissions from food consumption.