Measuring systemic influence in hierarchical safety control structures: A Grey DEMATEL extension of STAMP-CAST

Traditional accident analysis methods often fail to capture the complex, latent web of systemic control failures that characterizes modern socio-technical environments. This study proposes an innovative integration of Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process with Causal Analysis based on Systems Theory (STAMP CAST) and Grey Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Grey DEMATEL) methodologies. While STAMP CAST provides systemic understanding, its qualitative nature limits quantifiable assessment of causal relationships. To address this limitation, this research develops a three-phase framework integrating Grey DEMATEL’s uncertainty-handling capabilities with STAMP CAST’s systemic approach. The methodology’s effectiveness is demonstrated through the analysis of the 2020 Air India Express Flight 1344 accident, revealing organizational safety culture and national regulatory safety governance as primary causal factors with the highest influence values, while operational condition assessment emerged as the most dependent factor. This integration enables evidence-based prioritization of safety recommendations through quantified relationship assessment, particularly valuable in resource-constrained environments. The approach transforms conventional safety analysis by providing guidance for targeted interventions based on measured system impact rather than perceived risks alone.