From “curse” to “gospel”: how can industrial relocation lead cities to cross the resource dependence gap

Industrial relocation offers a novel solution to help mitigate the “resource curse” by reducing dependence on natural resources and fostering diversified economic systems, thereby optimizing the industrial structure. This paper explores the mechanism and economic consequences of industrial relocation’s dependence on the host country’s resources, focusing on the National Industrial Relocation Demonstration Zones (NIRDZ). Theoretical analysis using urban panel statistics from 2006 to 2022 investigates the relationship between industrial relocation and the host’s resource dependence through a multi-period Difference-in-Differences. The heterogeneity of the policy effect is analyzed from a three-dimensional urban attribute perspective encompassing “location-feature-scale.” The results indicate that: (1) Industrial relocation can significantly restrain resource dependence and thereby help alleviate the “resource curse,” a conclusion that remains valid following multiple robustness tests. (2) Industrial relocation mainly inhibits urban resource dependence by reducing energy consumption, increasing the level of foreign investment, and enhancing technological innovation. (3) Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the NIRDZ policy exerts a more pronounced inhibitory effect on resource dependence in central cities, non-provincial-capital cities, and cities with smaller populations. Unlike the cracking strategy proposed by most previous studies on resource management, this paper reveals that central cities can provide a viable pathway to alleviating the “resource curse” by developing industries in the eastern region. This not only establishes a foundation for decision-making regarding the green transformation and sustainable development of resource-rich cities but also contributes to new empirical evidence to the “resource curse” governance literature.