LAB #2861 HARMFUL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.2% (+6.1pp, n=646 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.2% (+6.1pp, n=646) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the NY_OPEN filter to the live window above would have eliminated 8 of 10 trades (all timestamps are 10:10–11:35 +02:00, which is outside NY open 14:30–21:00 UTC). The two surviving trades (XAUUSD LONG 08-06 10:10 and XAUUSD SHORT 08-04 11:35) would both be removed, leaving zero trades in this sample. Since the current window shows 6 wins and 4 losses (60% win rate), the filter would have removed all activity — net PnL delta = -100% of current realized PnL, but also zero risk. This is a degenerate test: the filter is too restrictive for this timezone, and the backtest improvement (+6.1pp) is likely driven by a different session definition or timezone offset. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would drastically cut trade frequency (likely >80% reduction) because your live entries clu Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com