24. Market Dynamics in the U.S. Goat Meat (Chevon) Sector: Challenges and Opportunities.

Abstract In the U. S., goats account for less than 2% of total red meat production but remain crucial in small-scale farming and niche markets. Growing consumer demand for goat meat is driven by population growth, changing dietary habits, and an increasing ethnic population. However, domestic production has not sufficiently met this demand. This study aims to identify production challenges, supply chain issues, and trade factors that lead to reliance on imports in the U. S. goat meat industry. It uses secondary data from 2000 to 2024 and applies time- series analysis methods such as the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, log-linear trend models, and structural break detection using the Bai-Perron method, with breakpoints confirmed through Supremum F-Tests and Chow tests, along with analysis of specific growth regimes and volatility. The results show that U.S. demand for goat meat greatly exceeds domestic production, reaching 31,868 metric tons in 2024, compared to about 9,960 metric tons produced domestically. ADF testing indicates that both import and export series are non-stationary at their levels but become stationary after differencing (p < 0.05), revealing underlying trends in trade data. Structural break analysis identifies a major shift in import patterns around 2017 (SupF=20.54, p = 0.0011), with import growth slowing after that point and volatility increasing significantly—by almost sixfold (p < 0.001) —suggesting greater market instability and vulnerability to external shocks. Imports make up approximately 48–67% of total consumption and are highly concentrated, with Australia supplying over 95%. Exports are minimal and have decreased since a structural break in 2004 (p < 0.05), indicating weak international competitiveness. The ongoing supply gap results from structural challenges, including small- scale farms dominating the industry, small herd sizes, limited adoption of improved genetics and feeding practices, limited access to slaughter and processing facilities, and a spatial mismatch between production regions and urban markets that impairs supply chain efficiency. The findings emphasize a structural imbalance in the U.S. goat meat industry, characterized by high demand, limited local production, and heavy reliance on imports. This situation increases vulnerability to global market shocks and supply disruptions. Addressing these issues requires increasing productivity through improved genetics, feeding, and herd management, as well as expanding slaughter and processing infrastructure. Additionally, improving supply chain coordination and supporting farmers through need-based extension programs can promote climate-resilient production practices, expand market access, and enable more informed decisions. Implementing these strategies is key to reducing reliance on imports, increasing domestic output, and ensuring the sector's long-term competitiveness and sustainability.