Multi-Scenario and Multiscale Patterns of Urban Expansion and Territorial Spatial Conflict in Hunan Province

Urban expansion reshapes production–living–ecological space (PLES) and may alter territorial spatial conflict (TSC), yet the spatial relationship between urban expansion and TSC may vary across development scenarios and analytical scales. This study integrated the interaction network–Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (intPLUS) model, urban expansion intensity (UEI), TSC assessment, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation to examine historical changes during 2005–2020 and projected patterns in 2035 under natural-development (ND), economic-development (ED), and ecological-protection (EP) scenarios at the 5 km grid and county scales. Results showed that the overall PLES structure remained relatively stable, while scenario differences were mainly reflected in land-conversion pathways and conflict responses. ED produced the broadest urban-oriented conversion and the most extensive TSC intensification, EP constrained urban expansion and was dominated by stable or mitigating conflict changes, and ND largely continued historical tendencies. Urban expansion was concentrated around the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration and other regional centres, whereas TSC intensification was more fragmented along urban fringes, agricultural–ecological interfaces, and development corridors. At the 5 km grid scale, ΔTSC and neighbouring UEI were significantly negatively associated in all periods and scenarios, with HL clusters more common than HH clusters. At the county scale, the negative association persisted historically and under ED and EP, but was non-significant under ND, revealing clear spatial mismatch and differences between the two analytical scales. These findings provide a multiscale basis for identifying spatially differentiated conflict responses and improving targeted territorial spatial management.