Epistemic Calibration and Latency Advantages of System One Probabilistic Agents in Limit Order Book Microstructure: An Empirical and Multi-Agent Evaluation

Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) operating under the deliberative System Two paradigm encounter severe structural bottlenecks when deployed in electronic financial markets: token-by-token sequential decoding induces unacceptable execution latencies (3,500-12,000 ms), unstructured text outputs trigger syntactic parsing failures, and coarse sentiment classifiers fail to identify semantic camouflage in corporate disclosures. This paper formulates, deploys, and empirically evaluates a System One probabilistic decision agent powered by TypeSafe AI's foundation model (jev-1.13.0) and optimized via Reinforcement Learning from Classifier Decisions (RLCD). By restricting the action space to a strictly typed simplex A4 = {HOLD, LONG, SHORT, CLOSE} evaluated in a single forward pass O(1), the agent achieves sub-second inference (mean latency 241.18 ms, compliance 98.8% < 500 ms) and rigorous epistemic calibration (ECE = 0.0228, Brier Score = 0.0274). On empirical Level 2 (L2) tick data from Binance Futures (BTCUSDT), the bidirectional agent delivers +739.70 bps net of friction with a Sharpe ratio of 14.92, identifying the critical latency extinction threshold at 1,485.00 ms.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23047543
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
preprint

Epistemic Calibration and Latency Advantages of System One Probabilistic Agents in Limit Order Book Microstructure: An Empirical and Multi-Agent Evaluation

Nathan Prados Tapia
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
preprint

Epistemic Calibration and Latency Advantages of System One Probabilistic Agents in Limit Order Book Microstructure: An Empirical and Multi-Agent Evaluation

Nathan Prados Tapia
preprint en

Abstract

Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) operating under the deliberative System Two paradigm encounter severe structural bottlenecks when deployed in electronic financial markets: token-by-token sequential decoding induces unacceptable execution latencies (3,500-12,000 ms), unstructured text outputs trigger syntactic parsing failures, and coarse sentiment classifiers fail to identify semantic camouflage in corporate disclosures. This paper formulates, deploys, and empirically evaluates a System One probabilistic decision agent powered by TypeSafe AI's foundation model (jev-1.13.0) and optimized via Reinforcement Learning from Classifier Decisions (RLCD). By restricting the action space to a strictly typed simplex A4 = {HOLD, LONG, SHORT, CLOSE} evaluated in a single forward pass O(1), the agent achieves sub-second inference (mean latency 241.18 ms, compliance 98.8% < 500 ms) and rigorous epistemic calibration (ECE = 0.0228, Brier Score = 0.0274). On empirical Level 2 (L2) tick data from Binance Futures (BTCUSDT), the bidirectional agent delivers +739.70 bps net of friction with a Sharpe ratio of 14.92, identifying the critical latency extinction threshold at 1,485.00 ms.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (ES)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

Epistemic Calibration and Latency Advantages of System One Probabilistic Agents in Limit Order Book Microstructure: An Empirical and Multi-Agent Evaluation — Nathan Prados Tapia · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS