Green energy transition and energy efficiency in Türkiye: The roles of industrial productivity and fossil fuel inefficiency

This study investigates the determinants of energy efficiency effectiveness in Türkiye within the context of green energy transition and sustainable development goals over the period 1990–2024. Despite the growing importance of sustainable energy transformation, limited attention has been given to how industrial productivity, fossil fuel inefficiency, energy import performance, and green energy utilization jointly influence energy efficiency outcomes in developing economies. To address this gap, the study employs Fourier-based econometric techniques, including Fourier ADF, Fourier ADL cointegration, FMOLS, CCR, and DOLS estimators, which account for nonlinearities and smooth structural shifts in time-series data. The empirical findings indicate that industrial energy effectiveness increases energy efficiency effectiveness by approximately 2.6–4.2%, while energy import effectiveness generates positive elasticities ranging from 8.9% to 26.7%. In contrast, fossil fuel inefficiency reduces energy efficiency effectiveness by nearly 3.1–3.3% in the long run. Green energy utilization also exhibits a positive contribution, although its significance varies across estimators. These findings suggest that improving industrial productivity, reducing fossil fuel losses, and accelerating green energy integration are critical for strengthening sustainable energy systems in Türkiye. The study provides important implications for SDG7 and SDG13 by demonstrating that energy transition policies should simultaneously prioritize industrial efficiency, low-carbon transformation, and energy system modernization.