Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Türkiye: A dynamic ARDL analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions

This study investigates the relation among economic growth, energy consumption, and environmental degradation in Türkiye within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Using annual data for the 1980-2024 period, the model incorporates carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions as the dependent variable; per capita gross domestic product (GDP), squared GDP, and energy consumption (EC) are included as independent variables. The analytical findings reveal a long-term relationship among the variables. Long-run coefficients show that a 1% increase in energy consumption drives up carbon emissions by approximately 0.68%. Similarly, a 1% rise in per capita income leads to a roughly 2.40% surge in carbon emissions. Conversely, the negative coefficient for squared per capita income (-0.09) suggests that economic growth can mitigate environmental degradation beyond a certain threshold, thereby validating the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Short-term estimates mirror these findings, confirming the augmenting impact of both energy consumption and economic expansion on carbon emissions. The error correction term, calculated as -0.79, signifies that nearly 79% of short-term disequilibria are corrected in the subsequent period, guiding the system back toward its long-run equilibrium. These empirical dynamics show that while Türkiye’s current economic expansion remains essentially coupled with carbon-intensive energy structures, advancing beyond critical income thresholds possesses the capacity to catalyze environmental recovery. Accelerating this process necessitates structural policy shifts aimed at decoupling growth from fossil fuel dependence, prioritizing renewable capacity development, and enforcing stringent efficiency regulations to align with long-term sustainable development objectives.