Forecasting Türkiye’s salmon exports: A multi-method assessment of market dynamics and country-specific prospects

Türkiye has rapidly emerged as an important producer and exporter of Turkish salmon, yet the future trajectory of its exports may differ substantially across destination markets. This study examines the short-term country-specific prospects of Türkiye’s salmon exports and identifies markets characterized by growth potential, contraction, and uncertainty. The analysis uses January–August export data for 2022–2025 for 25 destination countries with complete observations for all four study years. January–August export volumes for 2026–2028 are projected using Holt’s Linear Trend Method, the Damped Holt Method, and the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model, while Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) are employed to assess recent market dynamics. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity across destination markets. Russia is expected to remain Türkiye’s dominant salmon export market, although its continued expansion also implies persistent risk of market concentration. Belarus, Georgia, Lithuania, and Kazakhstan emerge as promising growth markets, while Japan and Vietnam maintain strong prospects among Asian destinations. In contrast, several mature European markets, particularly Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Italy, exhibit declining or uncertain trajectories, highlighting the need for market-specific product and value-chain strategies. Comparisons across forecasting methods show broad agreement for several major markets but also reveal considerable divergence for selected destinations, reflecting the sensitivity of very short and volatile trade series to model specification. Given the limited observation period, the forecasts should therefore be interpreted primarily as short-term January–August projections of the direction and relative strength of existing market trajectories rather than as deterministic estimates of full-calendar-year export volumes. The findings suggest that the next stage of Türkiye’s salmon export development will require a transition from export expansion toward export portfolio management, with greater emphasis on geographic diversification, value-added products, market-specific positioning, and reduced dependence on dominant destinations.