Decoding technology transition process through consumer behavior: experience from China’s electric vehicle evolution

The competition between electric vehicles (EVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles is fundamentally shaped by how heterogeneous consumers respond to technological and market change. This study develops a decision-based framework that links micro-level adoption behavior with macro-level fleet dynamics. Using China as the core case, we identify three consumer segments: new, replacement, and renewal buyers, and show that they react differently to purchase cost, usability, and charging conditions. Embedding these segments in a dynamic simulation suggests a conditional phased transition under the baseline scenario: EV stock may overtake ICEVs around 2030, and the expansion of the secondhand EV market after 2035 could reshape buyer composition and strengthen the role of replacement demand. A cross-national comparison of 51 countries further shows that economic development stages and institutional capacity mediate how these behavioral logics translate into market outcomes, from infrastructure and affordability constraints in emerging EV markets to norm-driven, autonomous adoption in advanced EV markets. The findings highlight that EV transitions are driven by the interaction between consumer heterogeneity and market development, providing a behavioral basis for stage-specific policies and infrastructure strategies worldwide.