Path dependent peri urban land transformation and urban expansion in Ibadan Nigeria

Abstract Rapid peri-urban expansion is transforming landscapes across Sub-Saharan Africa, yet land-use change is often represented as independent conversions rather than sequential processes shaped by previous land states. This study examines evidence of path-dependent peri-urban transformation in the Akinyele–Lagelu–Egbeda corridor of Ibadan, Nigeria, using multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 2005, 2015 and 2025. Supervised land-use/land-cover classification was integrated with transition analysis, Sankey pathway mapping, kernel density hotspot analysis, morphological fragmentation assessment, Land Change Modeler gain/loss analysis, and Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) simulation. The model was calibrated using historical transition probabilities and spatial suitability constraints with a 5 × 5 neighbourhood configuration, hindcast to 2025 for validation, and projected to 2050 under a built-up persistence constraint. Built-up land increased from 87.3 km 2 (8.39%) in 2005 to 373.0 km 2 (35.83%) in 2025, while vegetation declined by 291.0 km 2 . The dominant transformation pathway was Vegetation → Bare Land → Built-up, indicating a shift from land clearing during 2005–2015 to construction and consolidation during 2015–2025. Growth hotspots concentrated in Lagelu and Egbeda, while vegetation fragmentation intensified, with core patches declining from 82 to 21. Model validation produced a standard Kappa of 0.89 and Figure of Merit of 0.36. Under continued historical transition conditions, built-up land is projected to reach approximately 580 km 2 by 2050, while vegetation declines to 198.3 km 2 . The study demonstrates that transitional bare land represents an identifiable stage of peri-urban transformation and a critical intervention point for anticipatory land-use planning and ecological protection.