The Security Dilemma in India-China Relations: A source of Strategic Competition

Abstract The India–China relationship has increasingly come to be characterised by persistent strategic competition, despite continued diplomatic engagement and the absence of sustained large-scale military conflict. This paper examines this relationship through the lens of the security dilemma, arguing that the interaction between India and China is shaped not only by competing interests but also by mutual uncertainty regarding security intentions. The unresolved boundary dispute and the absence of a mutually agreed Line of Actual Control (LAC) create a particularly conducive environment for such insecurity. In this context, military deployments, border infrastructure, patrols and strategic partnerships undertaken by one side for defensive purposes can be interpreted by the other as attempts to alter the status quo or gain a strategic advantage. The resulting action–reaction cycle reinforces threat perceptions and encourages further security measures. The paper further examines how this security dilemma has evolved beyond the disputed boundary to encompass wider strategic competition in South Asia, the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific. Particular attention is given to the 2020 Galwan crisis, which marked a significant intensification of military distrust and transformed the existing pattern of border management into a more sustained condition of military preparedness and strategic rivalry. The paper argues that the security dilemma has become a mechanism through which India–China strategic competition is reproduced and intensified, even when neither side necessarily intends direct conflict. At the same time, nuclear deterrence, the costs of escalation and diplomatic mechanisms constrain the possibility of full-scale war. The emerging relationship is therefore best understood as one of managed but increasingly institutionalised strategic competition, in which reducing uncertainty and restoring predictability remain central to maintaining regional stability.