The Russia-Ukraine Port Disruptions in Shipping Data: Effects on Grain, Fertilizer, and U.S. Trade

The September 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor examines how attacks on Russian and Ukrainian export ports affected grain, fertilizer, and U.S. trade. In July–August 2026, the four Black Sea exporters loaded 14.4 million tons of grain, fertilizer, and other dry-bulk cargo, 32 percent less than their 2023–25 average for those months. Regional grain loadings held up until the August 12 attack on Novorossiysk, after which weekly loadings averaged about 780,000 tons. Other exporters replaced only part of the lost wheat. Ukraine increased rail shipments, but limited capacity constrained this alternative, and vessel-loading data overstate the decline in its total exports because they exclude rail. Ukrainian corn loadings fell about 95 percent, raising the risk of grain accumulating in inland storage as the harvest began. U.S. corn shipments to several European buyers increased, while U.S. wheat export sales remained below a year earlier. Russian fertilizer shipments to the United States stopped in August despite strong overall loadings at Ust-Luga. The report has not yet estimated the cost to U.S. farmers.