Rethinking agricultural sustainability in Turkey: structural drivers of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract This study examines the structural determinants of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey from an agricultural economics and sustainability perspective. Using annual data from 1990 to 2021, the dynamic relationships between agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth, financial development, renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, and globalization are analyzed. The stationarity of the variables was examined using traditional ADF and PP unit root tests, as well as the FFF-ADF test; long-term relationships were estimated using the FFFA-ARDL approach. FMOLS and CCR estimators were used as robustness checks. The empirical findings show a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to the traditional inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, the results indicate a U-shaped relationship, revealing that economic expansion increases environmental pressure on the agricultural sector after a certain income level. Furthermore, it was determined that there are positive long-term relationships between financial development, renewable energy consumption, and technological innovations and agricultural emissions; while globalization exhibits a negative long-term relationship with agricultural emissions. These findings demonstrate that development processes focused on finance, energy, and technology may fail to generate environmental benefits when not supported by sustainability policies. The study highlights the importance of environmentally sound financing, green innovation, and sustainable agriculture policies in a low-carbon agricultural transition for Türkiye and similar developing economies.