Potential Geographical Distribution Prediction and Ecological Niche Change Analysis of Pissodes castaneus

Pissodes castaneus is an internationally quarantined pest that damages various pine species. The global distribution patterns and invasion potential of P. castaneus have not been systematically assessed, thus leaving relevant prevention and control systems without a theoretical foundation. In this study, we used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the global suitable areas of P. castaneus under current and future climate conditions. At the same time, it assesses the changes in the ecological niche of P. castaneus under climate change. The results indicate that the AUC values of the MaxEnt model exceeded 0.9 under both current and future climate scenarios, indicating high predictive accuracy. Under current climate conditions, the total global potential suitable area for P. castaneus is 1.08 × 107 km2. The highly suitable areas are mainly distributed in Western Europe, northern Turkey, southeastern Australia, the west coast of North America, and the east coast of South America. Under the two future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), the total suitable area initially decreases and then increases, reaching its maximum during 2081–2100. Compared with current conditions, suitable areas shift northward in the Northern Hemisphere. Under both the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, although its niche remains highly conservative relative to current conditions, different emission scenarios may affect the niche dynamics of P. castaneus. This study reveals the spatiotemporal dynamics of suitable areas and niche characteristics of P. castaneus on a global scale, providing a basis for worldwide quarantine and inspection efforts and offering scientific data support for future prevention and control of its spread.