Uneven attention to climate tipping points

Climate tipping points have moved from theoretical concern to a practical challenge for climate-risk assessment and governance. Yet whether scientific attention is aligned with risk-relevant characteristics of climate tipping elements (CTEs) has not been systematically assessed. Across 20,736 CTE-specific records spanning 2000–2025 and addressing 14 tipping elements, attention was concentrated on the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, while Boreal Permafrost (abrupt thaw) and the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre received comparatively limited attention despite their relatively low estimated warming thresholds. Explicit engagement with risk-relevant tipping dynamics, including abrupt transitions, hysteresis, or irreversibility, was also limited. These patterns may influence which tipping risks can be most readily assessed, prioritized, and governed.

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Publication Details

Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2026-09-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2618666123
Primary Topic
Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Uneven attention to climate tipping points

Heming Wang, Fengmei Ma, Nico Wunderling, Timothy M. Lenton et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
article

Uneven attention to climate tipping points

Heming Wang, Fengmei Ma, Nico Wunderling, Timothy M. Lenton, Asaf Tzachor, B. Chen
article en

Abstract

Climate tipping points have moved from theoretical concern to a practical challenge for climate-risk assessment and governance. Yet whether scientific attention is aligned with risk-relevant characteristics of climate tipping elements (CTEs) has not been systematically assessed. Across 20,736 CTE-specific records spanning 2000–2025 and addressing 14 tipping elements, attention was concentrated on the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, while Boreal Permafrost (abrupt thaw) and the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre received comparatively limited attention despite their relatively low estimated warming thresholds. Explicit engagement with risk-relevant tipping dynamics, including abrupt transitions, hysteresis, or irreversibility, was also limited. These patterns may influence which tipping risks can be most readily assessed, prioritized, and governed.

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesVol. 123(40)
Goethe University Frankfurt (DE), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Reichman University (IL), Corvinus University of Budapest (HU), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), University of Exeter (GB), Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt/M (DE), Leibniz Association (DE), Institute of Urban Environment (CN), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 14%
Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
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Uneven attention to climate tipping points — Heming Wang, Fengmei Ma, et al. · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS