The Implications of Ungulate Population Dynamics for Conservation and Recovery Efforts in the Middle East

ABSTRACT Ungulate reintroduction programmes are increasingly implemented in the Middle East to counter substantial population declines attributed to overhunting and habitat degradation. Many of these populations, however, are highly conservation‐dependent, and the mechanisms regulating these populations remain largely unexamined. We compiled and analysed 84 oryx and 43 gazelle annual population records across the Middle East for the Arabian oryx ( Oryx leucoryx ) and sand gazelle ( Gazella marica ), both classified as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List, using linear mixed‐effects models to test for patterns in population regulation focusing on density dependence, Allee effects, and temporal autocorrelation in growth rates. Both species showed a negative density dependence pattern, with growth rates declining consistently as population size increased, indicating that density dependence is an important driver of population persistence and dynamics across sites. We detected no significant Allee effects, suggesting that small populations can recover when conditions are suitable. The models of Arabian oryx exhibited temporal autocorrelation, with prior‐year conditions significantly influencing present growth trends, indicating that population dynamics are shaped by lagged environmental or demographic processes. Inconsistent monitoring limited our ability to assess other ungulate species in the region, highlighting the need for more standardised long‐term data collection across the region. These findings demonstrate that density dependence and temporal autocorrelation influence reintroduced ungulate dynamics in arid systems. Management strategies that rely on short‐term counts risk misinterpreting recovery if past conditions continue to affect present growth. We recommend that conservation programmes incorporate multi‐year monitoring to detect delayed responses, anticipate density‐dependence slowdowns, and adapt interventions accordingly. Expanding consistent long‐term data collection across species and sites will be critical for improving the effectiveness of ungulate conservation in the Middle East.