Economic incentives for conifers may limit broadleaf expansion in climate-adaptive European forests
Abstract Forests are increasingly affected by climate change, highlighting the necessity of adaptive management to sustain ecosystem services. Yet adaptation is complicated by the interplay between ecological and socioeconomic considerations. We used an informed questionnaire to survey a selected group of forest professionals across different European sites, focusing on how perceptions of climate and socioeconomic change drive adaptive management choices. Here we show that professionals broadly agree on the negative impacts of climate change, with drought emerging as the dominant high-risk factor, while perceived socioeconomic change reflects rising timber demand and prices alongside higher operational costs. Professionals rank species diversity, mixing broadleaf and conifer species, and assisted natural regeneration as the priority adaptive measures, yet anticipated timber price increases lead a quarter of respondents to favor maintaining or increasing conifer shares. Economic expectations can change adaptation choices, highlighting a tension between ecological resilience and socioeconomic priorities that forest policy needs to address.
Authors
- Anastasia Pantera (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4339-9141)
- Nikola Šušić (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2989-7096)
- Mari Selkimäki (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1662-0170)
- Žaklina S. Marjanović (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5254-178X)
- Tahamina Khanam (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4448-1550)
- Hervé Jactel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8106-5310)
- Gediminas Brazaitis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0234-9292)
- Goran Krsnik (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3373-5188)
- Henrik A. Hartmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9926-5484)
- Marc Djahangard (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9550-6343)
- Michael Manton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4812-6599)
- Lana Kukobat
- Lluís Coll (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8035-5949)
- Leena Leskinen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2418-2230)
- Gailenė Brazaitytė (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1336-9371)
- Rasoul Yousefpour (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3604-8279)
- Alexandru Lucian Curtu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8509-279X)
- Frank Berninger
- Harald Bugmann
- Han Zhang
- Aureliu Florin Halalisan
Institutions
- Agricultural University of Athens (GR)
- Julius Kühn-Institut (DE)
- National metrology institute VTT MIKES (FI)
- Université de Bordeaux (FR)
- Universitat de Lleida (ES)
- University of Freiburg (DE)
- University of Eastern Finland (FI)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Vytautas Magnus University (LT)
- Transylvania University of Brașov (RO)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- University of Belgrade (RS)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (ES)
- UMR BIOdiversity, GEnes & Communities (FR)
- Metsähallitus (Finland) (FI)
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE)
- Institute for Multidisciplinary Research
- University of Göttingen (DE)
- Northwest A&F University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2026-09-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04087-6
- Primary Topic
- Forest Management and Policy
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00