A risk-based framework for regional decarbonization: spatial analysis of household sector vulnerabilities and resilience pathways

Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, increasing disaster hazards worldwide. This study assesses the regional decarbonization of Russia’s Housing and Communal Services (HCS) sector through the lens of disaster risk reduction (DRR), using the IPCC AR6 hazard-exposure-vulnerability framework. We evaluate household carbon footprints in seven Russian federal districts and Arctic regions ( n = 400) to uncover spatial disparity in emission drivers and socio-economic vulnerabilities that shape climate risk profiles. Our methodology combines survey data with region-specific emission factors, cost-benefit analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations) to assess policy options for both reducing emissions and enhancing disaster risk reduction benefits. Moscow’s per capita emissions (1,034 kg CO₂eq/month) are twice those of Vladimir (512 kg), largely due to aviation (24%) and automobile use (45%). Siberian regions like Tomsk show high vulnerability from coal dependence (60% of emissions) and energy poverty (18% of income spent on energy). Policy simulations suggest that region-specific interventions, such as aviation fees in Moscow (Benefit-Cost Ratio: 4.8) and transitioning from coal to gas in Tomsk (BCR: 3.0), are more cost-effective and provide substantial risk reduction benefits, including better air quality (30–50% reduction in PM2.5), improved energy security, and decreased vulnerability to price shocks. Monte Carlo projections show contrasting paths for 2030: Moscow faces a potential 35% increase in emissions under worst-case scenarios, while Tomsk may achieve a 24% reduction with successful fuel switching. This study presents a repeatable framework for creating climate policies that address disaster risk drivers while improving socio-ecological resilience in large and diverse nations.