Spatial zoning of rural marginalization under environmental stress using geographic information systems and system dynamics

Abstract The persistence of regional development inequalities has highlighted the necessity of using dynamic models that encompass the multidimensional nature of rural isolation. Traditional spatial planning frameworks often overlook the synergistic impacts of service deprivation and geological hazards on the phenomenon of marginalization. The present study formulates an integrated methodological framework for the spatial zoning of socio-spatial marginalization in Kabudarahang County, Iran; a semi-arid region dealing with severe depletion of groundwater resources and structural land deformation. Utilizing the Fuzzy Delphi Method, 13 key socio-spatial and environmental indicators were validated and weighted by a panel of experts. These parameters were subsequently integrated using multi-criteria spatial analyses and weighted overlay techniques in a Geographic Information System environment. Moreover, to provide a dynamic explanation of the cause-and-effect relationships and analyze the feedback structure governing rural isolation, the System Dynamics approach was employed using Vensim software alongside the spatial models. The empirical findings of this research indicate a profound state of spatial injustice. Spatial mapping identified a “northern isolation zone” characterized by acute “service poverty” and excessively long distances to health and educational centers; this sits alongside a “geological hazard zone” where catastrophic land subsidence (with rates exceeding 14 cm per year) and active sinkholes are systematically destroying agriculture-based livelihoods. The results demonstrate that ecological degradation is not merely a physical event; rather, it acts as an active accelerating factor in socio-spatial isolation, creating inescapable “vulnerability traps.” This study ultimately concludes that moderating this deep urban-rural gap requires a paradigm shift toward equity-oriented territorial planning; an approach that encompasses the decentralized distribution of services and immediate governance of groundwater resources to ensure regional resilience.