A Baseline Study of Historical Population Parameters and Recovery Projections for Southern Black Drum Pogonias courbina (Teleostei) After Fishery Collapse in Southern Brazil

ABSTRACT Long‐term fishery‐dependent datasets for threatened marine fishes are exceptionally rare, yet critical for reconstructing pre‐collapse population states. We analyzed an extensive archive of biological and fishery records for Pogonias courbina collected in southern Brazil during the 1970s–early 1980s, when the stock remained still abundant. These data enabled the first integrated reconstruction of life‐history traits, recruitment dynamics, and historical biomass trajectories prior to collapse. Age readings revealed longevity up to 57 years and relatively late maturation, while reproductive and dietary analyses confirmed a long‐lived, demersal strategist with aggregation‐based spawning. Cohort reconstructions indicated intermittent recruitment failures predating the fishery collapse. A catch‐only, age‐structured Simple Stock Synthesis model showed biomass decline beginning in the 1950s, culminating in collapse by the early 1980s. Projections demonstrate that rebuilding would require decades even under full protection, given low population turnover and recruitment variability. These results highlight the long‐term consequences of delayed management and the necessity of precautionary strategies for slow‐growing coastal fishes.