LAB #2842 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp, n=1421) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the pool density HIGH (>=90) filter would have excluded trades triggered in low-density pools. In the current window, the two rizzy5m GBPUSD SHORTs (entries 1.34407 and 1.34461) and the rizzy5m XAUUSD SHORT (entry 4051.79) are candidates for exclusion if their pool density fell below 90 — that would remove 2 wins and 1 loss, shifting the window from 6W/4L to 4W/3L, a win-rate drop from 60% to ~57% but a net PnL change near zero (removing 2 wins and 1 loss roughly cancels). The USDCHF SHORT (REJECTED/open) would also be filtered if density low, but its outcome is unknown. Net effect on this small sample is negligible, not the +1.6pp claimed. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter's +1.6pp win-rate gain (n=1421) is statistically marginal (p≈0.10, not significant at 95% CI). The ris Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23007340
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
preprint

LAB #2842 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2842 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp, n=1421) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the pool density HIGH (>=90) filter would have excluded trades triggered in low-density pools. In the current window, the two rizzy5m GBPUSD SHORTs (entries 1.34407 and 1.34461) and the rizzy5m XAUUSD SHORT (entry 4051.79) are candidates for exclusion if their pool density fell below 90 — that would remove 2 wins and 1 loss, shifting the window from 6W/4L to 4W/3L, a win-rate drop from 60% to ~57% but a net PnL change near zero (removing 2 wins and 1 loss roughly cancels). The USDCHF SHORT (REJECTED/open) would also be filtered if density low, but its outcome is unknown. Net effect on this small sample is negligible, not the +1.6pp claimed. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter's +1.6pp win-rate gain (n=1421) is statistically marginal (p≈0.10, not significant at 95% CI). The ris Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Reduced inequalities
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

LAB #2842 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS