The tyranny of imagination: Symbolic struggles over the bioterrorist threat and the dilemmas of preparedness

Abstract This article begins by observing a central paradox of counter-bioterrorism: a widening gap between the proliferation of theoretical bioterrorism scenarios and the persistent paucity of realised events. The expanding production of such scenarios generates knowledge that simultaneously fuels dual-use concerns and exacerbates proliferation dilemmas. The article examines the historical and structural conditions of preparedness practices that give rise to this dynamic. It focuses on the political and epistemic strategies of a heterogeneous coalition that advanced a highly contested threat narrative in the 1990s. Their call for immediate preparedness was coupled with a vision of biotechnological innovation in defensive research, prompting early criticism from disarmament and terrorism scholars who identified strategic dilemmas still relevant today. The article argues that the evolving field is shaped by not merely security logics but also the agendas of those promoting preparedness. While it is quite unclear whether an adversary as capable as depicted in counter-bioterrorism’s conception ever will emerge, increasing demonstrations of the feasibility of bioterrorist attacks keep security actors under continuous pressure to prepare. Because preparedness derives primarily from actors’ own anticipatory practices, counter-bioterrorism has become a strategic field in which actors are, in effect, compelled to play against their own imaginations.