LAB #2787 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp, n=1417) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum 5-confirmation filter would have blocked the USDCHF SHORT (currently REJECTED/open) and likely the XAUUSD SHORT from 2026-08-04 (entry 4048.74, LOSS), as these typically trigger on lower confirmation counts. Removing that one confirmed loss from the 10-trade window shifts the record from 6W/4L to 6W/3L, improving win rate from 60% to 66.7% and PnL by roughly +1R (assuming standard risk). The GBPUSD SHORT from 08-03 (LOSS) may also have been filtered if it entered on <5 confirmations, which would push win rate to 75% — but this is speculative without per-trade confirmation logs. Net effect on this small sample is positive but driven by removing 1–2 losers, not adding winners. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a 5-confirmation minimum will reduce trade frequency (likely 15–25% fe Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23006786
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2787 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2787 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 30.9% to 32.5% (+1.6pp, n=1417) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum 5-confirmation filter would have blocked the USDCHF SHORT (currently REJECTED/open) and likely the XAUUSD SHORT from 2026-08-04 (entry 4048.74, LOSS), as these typically trigger on lower confirmation counts. Removing that one confirmed loss from the 10-trade window shifts the record from 6W/4L to 6W/3L, improving win rate from 60% to 66.7% and PnL by roughly +1R (assuming standard risk). The GBPUSD SHORT from 08-03 (LOSS) may also have been filtered if it entered on <5 confirmations, which would push win rate to 75% — but this is speculative without per-trade confirmation logs. Net effect on this small sample is positive but driven by removing 1–2 losers, not adding winners. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a 5-confirmation minimum will reduce trade frequency (likely 15–25% fe Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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