Critical Mineral Import Vulnerability and First-Round Supply-Loss Scenarios in China, 2015–2024: Implications for a Sustainable Low-Carbon Transition

A sustainable low-carbon transition requires reliable supplies of minerals used in renewable energy, electric mobility, energy storage, and electricity grids. This study assesses China’s import vulnerability and hypothetical first-round supply losses for five selected mineral product groups during 2015–2024: lithium carbonate, cobalt intermediates and unwrought products, unwrought nickel, natural graphite powder and flakes, and copper cathodes. Using bilateral trade data and domestic supply proxies, we construct a Structural Vulnerability Index (SVI) and estimate Supply-Loss Ratio (SLR) scenarios. The scenarios assume 20%, 30%, or 50% contractions by the largest supplier or the top three suppliers. We also assess temporal variability, conditional inventory and price adjustment, and 17 alternative SVI specifications. Processing concentration is reported separately because the available series are not comparable across minerals. In 2024, cobalt had the highest SVI (0.997). Under a 30% contraction, its modeled SLR was 0.233 for the largest-supplier scenario and 0.236 for the top-three-supplier scenario. Governance risk accounted for the largest share of dimension-level temporal variability (43.9%). Adjustment reduced or left unchanged the initial loss for eligible nickel, graphite, and copper observations; comparable inputs were unavailable for lithium and cobalt. These findings can inform mineral-specific supply monitoring and contingency planning for a sustainable low-carbon transition. The estimates are conditional trade-product stress tests, not forecasts of complete supply-chain losses.